Friday, March 18, 2011

A Libyan Explanation

Given the President's latest announcement many are wondering why we're getting into Libya.

The answer is pretty simple: our policy since before Harry Truman has been to be the leaders of the free world. Other countries can do some things on their own, largely in their former colonial empires, but mostly France/the UK/etc. have to defer to us. If we ask them to stay out of Libya they'll say no. If we don't ask them to do sop, and they go in alone, they're likely to stop deferring to us completely because they no longer need us. And they will go in alone.

Militarily this is an easy win. Libya's not landlocked, it's within easy flying distance of several major NATO countries. Even back when the Republic was new we could fight in Libya. Every officer of the USMC carries a replica of the sword Lt. Pressley O'Bannon won fighting in eastern Libya. Compare this to landlocked Darfur. It's also easy militarily. The objective right now is to destroy Qadafi's tanks and planes with the USAF. We can do that. Did it for 10 years in Iraq with no problems. And, unlike Iraq, there's an alternative to Qadafi we can at least tolerate. If the rebels have tanks and planes, but the government doesn't the rebels win and become the government basically by default. And at that point we can declare victory and go home.

People are worried the war could turn into Iraq. To be blunt that's an incredibly stupid fear. We were enforcing a no-fly-zone over Iraq for more then a decade when Bush decided to send ground troops in, and he still had to lie his ass off to get ground troops authorized. Worry that there will be a PR nightmare if the USAF misses. Worry that the stable-seeming anti-Qadafi group will collapse into fratricide before we can officially declare victory. Do not worry that Obama will send our ground troops there. It's not happening.

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